The article is devoted to study and analysis of methods of quality assessment of the non-tax revenues of the budgets of the regions of the Russian Federation forecasts as an element of financial management quality monitoring at the state and municipal levels. By means of the example of one of the chief administrators of the budget revenues in St. Petersburg, a study of the non-tax revenue forecasting quality was made and recommendations on how to combine various methods in this kind of analysis were given. Author's calculation and analysis of the coefficients that characterize the quality of financial management of a subject of the Russian Federation in terms of implementing the budget procedure for forecasting incomes was carried out. Groups of non-tax revenues of the regional budget in which the level of risk of unreliable forecasting is higher than in others were identified. Prospective methods of forecasting quality improvement in terms of budgets receipts for all levels of budgetary system of the Russian Federation were defined.
Highlights:
• Objective income budget receipts forecast enables the authorities to determine the amount of financial resources at their disposal.
• Earnings from the state property usage play an important role in composing of the budgets’ revenue part and are the result of the activities of a public-law unit as an economic entity, which characterize its effectiveness.
• The use of the indicator set by the Ministry of Finance to evaluate the quality of the budgetary forecasting procedure does not provide indisputable results, as the forecasted income type and its significance in the revenue structure are of great importance for such an assessment.
• To increase the objectivity of forecasting budget revenues quality assessment, it is necessary to analyze the forecast performance in terms of each income type, not focusing on enlarged groups, it is necessary to take into account the revenue source volume and focus on the analysis of the accuracy of the significant forecasting revenue sources.
• Budget revenues’ forecast based on a risk-oriented approach will help to improve the quality of the expected budget revenue amounts calculation.
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