Sternik S.G., Sternik G.M.Published in:
Russian Journal of Housing Research
– Volume 5, Number 2 (April-June 2018)

JEL classification: L74, R21, R31

Keywords: construction, development, forecasting, housing, housing policy, input, investment, market, modeling, profitability


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Abstract:

The volume of housing commissioning per capita is one of the most important indicators of the housing market development, as well as an indicator of socio-economic development of the city (region, country). In the context of a complex macroeconomic situation, the plans of regional and municipal authorities in terms of the volume of housing are adjusted as necessary, and this is determined primarily by the change in the investment attractiveness of development projects with a change in their level of profitability. The authors show that the projected volume of construction in the current year is equal to the product of the projected volume of construction in the previous year by the coefficient of change in construction volumes in the current and in the previous year due to the change in the average market yield of investment in development. The integration of this algorithm into the previously developed model of medium-term forecasting of the local housing market development allows to refuse from the assumption of the model on the equality of housing input volumes to the values set in the regional program of housing construction development, and to adjust this value in view of changes in the market and profitability of development. The degree (the model is built and the coefficients are determined) of the influence of the average current return on investment in development in a given financial period on the indicators of the volume of construction and commissioning of housing in the subsequent financial periods. On the basis of the studied dependence, the method of forecasting the actual index of input due to the short - and medium-term investment strategy of developers in the local market of construction and sale of housing is developed. The results obtained, in addition to analytical and marketing objectives, allow monitoring and adjusting the implementation of Federal and regional housing policy in local markets and justify measures to ensure sustainable growth of housing to the planned level.

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