Avdzeyko V.I., Karnyshev V.I., Mescheryakov R.V.Published in:
Russian Journal of Innovation Economics
– Volume 8, Number 1 (January-March 2018)

JEL classification: O31, O32, O34

Keywords: breakthrough technologies, forecasting, International patent classification, methods, patent analysis, technologies, time series


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Abstract:

Based on the analysis of numerous publications, the paper proposes the classification of forecasting methods, among which the authors preferred patent analysis. The essence of use of this method consists of creation of patents database in the investigated area of knowledge and construction on the Basis of the international patent classification (IPC) of time series on the main groups and subgroups of IPC. According to the dynamics of changes in the number of patents issued in the analyzed topics, it is proposed to identify promising and breakthrough technologies for the development of specific technological areas. Considering that patenting is ahead of realization of technical solutions in production, the conclusion about emergence in the next years of new products on the revealed breakthrough and perspective technologies is formed.

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