Beilin I.L.Published in:
Russian Journal of Innovation Economics
– Volume 8, Number 1 (January-March 2018)

JEL classification: O32, O33, С45

Keywords: economic and mathematical modeling, innovative chemical project, project management, sustainability, three-factor model


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Abstract:

On the basis of the approximating polynomial, we present a three-factor model for managing the sustainability of an innovative chemical project under condition of economic uncertainty. Economic uncertainty in chemical sector can be caused by intra- and external economic and political, investment, innovative, opportunistic, commercial, commodity, industrial and other factors. In the developed model, isoline levels show simultaneously a better ratio between three economic characteristics of the innovation project across the entire range of the planning matrix, and also provide the opportunity to forecast net present value and return on the project's capital.

Highlights:

The article considers the result of the simultaneous impact of product price uncertainties, discount rates and payback period of an innovative chemical project on the net present value and return on capital.
In the developed three-factor model for obtaining the calculated formulas, in the polynomial we successively substituted the coordinates of all points in the plan, and instead of the outputs, we substituted the values corresponding to these points.
The presented method of formalizing economic uncertainty can be a tool for managing the sustainability of an innovative project.

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