Likhachyova T.N.Published in:
Russian Journal of Labor Economics
– Volume 4, Number 4 (October-December 2017)

JEL classification: C 01, C 53, J11

Keywords: employees of organizations, forecasting, natural movement of population, rural territories, social and economic development


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Abstract:

The article presents the main results of the research on natural movement of population (death rates in particular) and dynamics of average number of employees in organizations in rural territories of the Northwestern Federal District based on official statistics. The aim of the article is to forecast death rates and staffing level in organizations in rural territories of the Northwestern Federal District. To achieve this goal we build regression models through which we make forecast calculations for the studied parameters by groups of regions of the studied federal district. The grouping of the regions is based on a demographic approach, i.e. their classification is related to the level of preponderance of rural population over urban population. The main research result is the calculation of forecast values of death rates and average number of employees in the short term (up to 2020) on the basis of regression equations. The author concludes that the existence of approved projects for rural territories development alone is not a sufficient condition for building efficient administration system. Other necessary conditions are political will, purposeful fundraising activity, and the formation of territories' investment appeal.

Highlights:

Recorded natural decline and reduction in the number of employees of organizations indicate the inability to create the conditions for the transition of rural areas to the path of economic growth;
Variable calculations have revealed the need to develop and implement measures for development of health care and environmental safety;
The existing projects aimed at the increase in wages in the budgetary sphere through staffing reduction don't solve the problem but only aggravate it, creating tension among the population;
Rural territories play an important historical and cultural role, they promote growth of well-being of nation and also ensure its food security;
Development of rural areas requires political will, targeted activities to attract financial resources not only from the budget; there is also a need to form investment attractiveness of territories.

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