Rusina A.N., Karpycheva O.V.Published in:
Russian Journal of Labor Economics
– Volume 4, Number 4 (October-December 2017)

JEL classification: J11, J20, J23, J44

Keywords: forecast, productivity of social labor, scenario conditions, staffing requirements, time lag


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Abstract:

The main problems of modeling of staffing requirements of the regional economy include a high dependence of the results on the quality of base data, poor base data and the lack of a long-term forecast for the development of the economy. The authors of the article analyze the main forecast methods for staffing requirements, namely, quantify contribution to creation of effective labor demand; mathematical model for forecasting; application of the scenario approach. On the basis of the analysis of advantages and disadvantages of current methods we suggest an approach to modeling the conditions for forecasting staff requirements of the region (justification of the time lag for achieving maximum effects of investment development, the type of interrelation between indicators of social labor productivity and investment in fixed assets). In order to model the scenario conditions for forecasting economy’s staffing requirements, the authors suggest to use methods of statistical modeling (simple linear regression method, simple logarithmic regression method, exponential smoothing method) and analysis of the adequacy of models based on the determination of the model, Fisher criterion, Durbin-Watson statistics. By the example of Krasnoyarsk Territory we present staffing requirement forecast results for three scenarios for the development of the region's economy (taking into account the potential of labor resources, the potential of socio-economic development and the aggregated scenario). The research was carried out with the support of the Regional state Autonomous institution “Krasnoyarsk regional Fund of support of scientific and scientific-technical activities” within the framework of the project: “Improvement of information and analytical models for a long-term forecast of the need for labor resources for staffing the strategic directions of socio-economic, innovative and technological development of the Krasnoyarsk Territory” (KF597).

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