The article analyzes trends and prospects for demographic development of rural areas of the North-Western Federal District. The author reviews the dynamics of number, age structure, indicators of reproduction of rural population. Using age-shifting method we’ve created a variation demographic forecast up to 2035. On its basis we identify such types of NWFD regions by the nature of the change in the projected number of rural population as regions with a steadily growing number of rural population, regions with unstable rural population dynamics, and regions with a steadily decreasing number of rural population. In the end we draw conclusions about the need to use a differentiated approach in sustainable development management of rural areas, taking into account the individual characteristics and specificity of the situation in the regions.
Highlights:
• Deterioration of demographic potential of rural areas is a serious obstacle to their sustainable development.
• Omitting territorial specifics is a disadvantage of the indicative-purpose approach.
• During the period 1990–2015, the rural population has decreased in seven regions of the NWFD, the most significantly (more than one third) – in the Murmansk, Pskov, Arkhangelsk regions, the Nenets Autonomous Okrug and the Komi Republic.
• During the period 2000–2015, in most regions of the NWFD the percentage of working age population has increased, and the percentage of child population has declined.
• According to all forecasts, the rural population of the North-West Federal District will steadily decline in the next 20 years (until 2035).
• The decline in the number of rural population will occur mainly at the expense of working age population.
• We identify three groups of subjects of the Northwestern Federal District according to the type of dynamics of the forecast number of the rural population: regions with a steadily growing population, regions with unstable population dynamics, regions with steadily declining numbers.
• Differentiated approach allows us not only to assess the prospects for demographic development of rural areas, but also to identify the most vulnerable areas that require the adoption of effective public policy measures.
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