Balabin A.A.Published in:
Russian Journal of Entrepreneurship
– Volume 18, Number 11 (June 2017)



Keywords: credit lag, lending structure, lending to extractive industries, lending to manufacturing industries, RUONIA, the key rate of the Bank of Russia


Share:

Abstract:

The paper analyses the impact of the key rate of the Bank of Russia and of the rate of interbank lending RUONIA on the share of extracting and processing industries in the loan portfolio of banks in 2009-2016. On the basis of statistical analysis we show the existence of a certain time lag between the movement of loan rates and changes in the structure of loan portfolio. The impact of the key rate is weaker than the rate of RUONIA. At the same time, the increase in lending rates leads to a subsequent increase (approximately with a one year interval) in the share of extractive and processing industries. We offer a number of hypotheses that can explain this statistical phenomenon.

---

References:
Abel E., Bernanke B. (2010). Makroekonomika [Macroeconomics] M.: Piter. (in Russian).
Balabin A.A. (2017). Smyagchenie monetarnoy politiki i strukturnye izmeneniya v rossiyskoy ekonomike [Mitigating monetary policy and structural changes in the Russian economy]. Eco. (1). 135-148. (in Russian).
Cведения о размещенных и привлеченных средствахОфициальный сайт Банка России. (in Russian). Retrieved March 10, 2017, from http://www.cbr.ru/statistics/?PrtId=sors
Kuvshinova O. (2016). Bogi ne ochen slushayut bankirov [The gods do not really listen to bankers]. Vedomosti. (in Russian).
Prokopenko A., Nikolskiy A., Papchenkova M. (2016). Dolgovoe ekho staroy skhemy [Debt echo of the old scheme]. Vedomosti. (in Russian).
RUONIA: Архив значенийНациональная финансовая ассоциация. (in Russian). Retrieved March 10, 2017, from http://www.ruonia.ru/archive.html
Trunin P.V., Sinelnikova-Muryleva E.V., Bozhechkova A.V. (2016). Vliyanie vysokikh protsentnyh stavok po zaimstvovaniyam na ekonomicheskiy rost v Rossiyskoy Federatsii [Impact of high loan interest rates on the economic growth in the Russian Federation]. Russian Entrepreneurship. 17 (10). 1213-1218. (in Russian).
Денежно-промышленная политика. Обеспечение долгосрочного доступного кредита экономике по конкурентным ставкам. Приложение к Среднесрочной программе социально-экономического развития России до 2025 г. «Стратегия роста»Институт экономики роста им. П.А.Столыпина. (in Russian). Retrieved March 13, 2017, from http://xn--80apatglfdfbadi.xn--p1ai/upload/iblock/f9a/8.-denezhno_promyshlennaya-politika.pdf
Минимальные процентные ставки по операциям РЕПО с Банком России в рублях на аукционнойОфициальный сайт Банка России. (in Russian). Retrieved March 10, 2017, from http://www.cbr.ru/hd_base/default.aspx?prtid=repo_proc&pid=idkp_br&sid=ITM_15890
Статистика внешнего сектора: оценка внешнего долга Российской ФедерацииОфициальный сайт Банка России. (in Russian). Retrieved March 12, 2017, from https://www.cbr.ru/statistics/default.aspx?Prtid=svs&ch=itm_52908#CheckedItem
Экономика роста. Доклад Столыпинского клубаСтолыпинский клуб. (in Russian). Retrieved March 13, 2017, from http://stolypinsky.club/economica-rosta