Boyko I.P., Kazakov A.V., Kolyshkin A.V.Published in:
Russian Journal of Entrepreneurship
– Volume 18, Number 8 (April 2017)



Keywords: crisis management, financial inconsistency, forecasting bankruptcy, logit-regression


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Abstract:

National and foreign economists study the problem of forecasting bankruptcy. At the same time there is no method that predicts the onset of bankruptcy in the medium term with sufficient accuracy. In order to solve this problem foreign economists suggest using the indexes, characterizing external economic conditions, age of firm and others. On the other hand we should clearly distinguish the concepts of "bankruptcy" and "insolvency" and direct models towards prediction of the very insolvency because it has an economic nature. In addition, there are statistical methods that can overcome the shortcomings of the conventional logistic regression. The article reviews current prospective approaches to improving the accuracy of forecasting insolvency. The paper also gives recommendations to domestic researchers.

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