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Output gap determination in the Russian economy


Andrey Zubarev, Pavel Trunin
(about the authors)

Zubarev Andrey Vitalevich – Candidate of Science, Economics, Senior Research Officer of Center for Studies of the Problems of Central Banks (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Moscow)

Trunin Pavel Vyacheslavovich – Candidate of Science, Economics, Leading Research Officer of Center for Studies of the Problems of Central Banks (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Moscow)

Published in:
Russian Journal of Entrepreneurship
– Volume 17, Number 3 (February, 2016)



Keywords: Hodrick-Prescott filter, model of unobservable components, output gap, phillips curve


Citation:
Andrey Zubarev, Pavel Trunin (2016). Output gap determination in the Russian economy. Russian Journal of Entrepreneurship, 17(3), 381-388. doi: 10.18334/rp.17.3.2225


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Abstract:

In this article the authors consider the evaluations of the output gaps of the Russian Economy in the period from 1999 to 2015. The evaluations have been obtained through use of one- and multidimensional (plus Phillips curve) Hodrick-Prescott filters, and also through the model of unobservable components. It has been shown that, as of 2014, starting from the beginning of the crisis phase in the economy, the output gap began to decrease and reached negative values of about -2% in 2015 year.







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