The articles analyses foreign and Russian studies in the area of bank bankruptcy modelling. Classification of approaches, models and bankruptcy forecast methods is given. Special analytical methods aimed at detection of signs of bank reports falsification and anomalous peaks.
Highlights:
► The methods for determining the signs of the banks’ bankruptcy that are based solely on the financial statements will not give a reliable prognosis as long as the problem of the statements data unreliability is not solved
► At banking fraud the causal relationships are such that criminal activities of the supervising persons in banks will always result in the appearance of the technical assets in the banks’ balance sheets and unreliability of the statements
► the criteria of “excessiveness” of the signs of the financial statements unreliability can be developed using the special analysis methods
► through the remote analysis of a bank it is possible to obtain the resultant index showing the probability of the bank’s using the regulation schemes, aggregate indicator of the bank’s credibility or quantitative adjustment amount of the key performance indicators and statutory requirements
► When diagnosing bankruptcy of the banks, it is necessary to pay close attention to the special computation– analytical and documentary methods of analysis, as well as to the models allowing to take into account the non– financial factors and the so-called IN-factors, such as incompleteness, inexactness, indeterminacy, inexactness, inaccuracy etc. until the unscrupulous players withdraw from the market.
► it’s important to develop such a direction as the viability evaluation of a bank’s business model, since it’s exactly the inefficient business schemes that consume the banks’ capitals and, eventually, lead to their transition to the nonmarket (criminal) business strategies
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