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Estimation of the monetary policy impact on the Russian macroeconomic indicators


Nikolay Pilnik
(about the author)

Pilnik Nikolay P. – Candidate of Science, Economics; Associate professor; Senior Research Associate; Research associate; Research associate (Applied Economics Department, National Research University “Higher School of Economics”; Laboratory for Macro-Structural Modeling of the Russian Economy, National Research University “Higher School of Economics”; Department for the Mathematical Modelling of Economic Systems for the Computing Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences; Laboratory for Social Analysis, Russian Foundation for Support of Education and Science)

Published in:
Global Markets and Financial Engineering (Russian version)
– Volume 2, Number 2 (April-June, 2015)



Keywords: inflation, monetary policy, money stock, real effective rate of rouble, russian economy


Citation:
Nikolay Pilnik (2015). Estimation of the monetary policy impact on the Russian macroeconomic indicators. Global Markets and Financial Engineering (Russian version), 2(2), 129-142. doi: 10.18334/grfi.2.2.535


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Abstract:

The article deals with modelling of the impact of the Bank of Russia’s monetary policy — money base and money stock — on the key indicators of the Russian economic development: GDP, consumer price index, and real effective rate of rouble. Three econometric models are suggested that show the level of effect produced by the analyzed factors and its time-based analysis. The estimation of the models was performed based on quarterly (for GDP) and monthly (for CPI and real effective rate of rouble) data within the period from 2003 to 2014. It was demonstrated that in the Russian economic conditions, the effect of monetary factors on GDP significantly prevails their effect on price indices.







References:
Korischenko, K.N. (2015). O protivorechii byudzhetnoy i monetarnoy politiki sovremennoy Rossiikak osnovnoy prichine krizisov. Globalnye rynki i finansovyy inzhiniring, 2(2), 85-98. doi: 10.18334/grfi.2.2.533
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