bgscience@idbg.ru
+7 495 648 62 41 Russia, 127015, Moscow, Novodmitrovskaya st. 5A (b. 7)
Menu
  • BIBLIO-GLOBUS
    • About
  • Journals
    • Russian Journal of Entrepreneurship
    • Creative Economy
    • Scholarly Communication Review
    • Russian Journal of Retail Management
    • Leadership and Management
    • Public-Private Partnership
    • Global Markets and Financial Engineering
    • Russian Journal of Housing Research
    • Food Policy and Security
    • Russian Journal of Labor Economics
    • Russian Journal of Innovation Economics
    • Journal of Economics, Entrepreneurship and Law
    • Russian Journal of Humanistic Psychology
  • BIBLIO-GLOBUS fiction

Switch to Russian:to Russian

Assessment of Forecast Quality: the Simplest Methods


Marina Turuntseva
(about the author)

Turuntseva Marina Yuryevna –

Published in:
Russian Journal of Entrepreneurship
– № 8-1 / August, 2011



Keywords: assessment of forecast quality, economic activity, economic indicators, forecasting


Citation:
Marina Turuntseva (2011). Assessment of Forecast Quality: the Simplest Methods. Russian Journal of Entrepreneurship, 12(8), 50-56. — url: http://bgscience.ru/com/lib/3064


Share:

Abstract:

The article is devoted to the quality analysis of economic performance forecasting. The author considers the simplest statistical techniques which are used to compare several predictions of a given indicator, as well as a set of tests that allow answering the question about the statistical significance of differences between these forecasts.








References:
1. Diebold F.X. Elements of Forecasting. – 4th ed. –
Thomson South-Western, 2007.
2. Diebold F.X., Mariano R.S. Comparing Predictive
Accuracy // Journal of Business and Economic Statistics. –
1995. – № 13 (3). – pp. 253–263.
3. Granger, C.W.J., Newbold P. // Forecasting Economic
Time Series, Orlando, Florida: Academic Press, 1997.
4. Meese, R.A., Rogoff K. Was it Real? The Exchange Rate –
Interest Differential Relation Over the Modern Floating–
Rate Period // Journal of Finance. – 1997. – 43. – pp. 933–
948.
5. Morgan, W.A. A test for the Significance of the Difference Between the two variances in a Sample From Normal Bivariate Population // Biometrika. – 1939–1940. – 31. – pp. 13–19.
6. Stock, J.H. and M.W. Watson (1998a) A Comparison of Linear and Non-Linear Univariate Models for Forecasting Macroeconomic Time Series, NBER WP #6607, June.
7. Wilcoxon, F. Individual Comparisons by Ranking Methods // Biometrics Bulletin. – 1945. – 1 (6). – pp. 80–83.
8. Turuntseva M., Yudin A., Drobyshevskiy S., Kadochnikov P., Trunin P., Ponomarenko S. Nekotorye podkhody k prognozirovaniyu ekonomicheskikh pokazateley. – M.: IEPP, 2005.
9. Turuntseva M., Kiblitskaya T. Kachestvennye svoystva razlichnyh podkhodov k prognozirovaniyu sotsialno-ekonomicheskikh pokazateley RF. – M.: IEPP, 2010.

Tel : +7 495 649 6241

Fax : +7 800 3331538

E-mail : bgscience@idbg.ru

Address : RUSSIA, 101000, Moscow, Myasnitskaya st. 13-2

BIBLIO-GLOBUS Science

BIBLIO-GLOBUS Science - one of the leading science publishers in Russia.

Read More
Other sites
  • BIBLIO-GLOBUS fiction
  • BIBLIO-GLOBUS bookstore
  • National Science Publishing Association (NATSPA)
© 2016 BIBLIO-GLOBUS Science (BIBLIO-GLOBUS Publishing House). All Rights Reserved