The article describes the reasons for the decline of the economic influence of the Australian Union in the South Pacific region in the 2010s. on the basis of original sources, the main beneficiary countries strengthened in the regional niches of the Oceania States due to the failed aggressive tactics of the Canberra cabinets at the beginning of the XXI century are described. The volumes of damage to the national economy of Australia are indicated, taking into account the foreseeable prospects. Scenarios of possible behaviour of the new authorities taking into account external and internal factors that determined the mistakes of the previous central governments in 2000-2010 are given. The role of the People's Republic of China, the Huaqiao of South-East Asia and Oceania, New Zealand, Fiji and Solomon Islands in the complex process of changing the parity of the system of economic influence in the South Pacific region by the end of the second decade of the XXI century is highlighted. The revenues of New Zealand in the framework of the military cooperation program (Mutual Assistance Program of New Zealand) with developing countries of the South Pacific region are shown, and its essence is stated. Complex scenarios modeling of the events development, proceeding from system of unsolved internal and external problems, is made. Conclusions are drawn about the need for a qualitative thorough revision of the failed economic initiatives of the Australian Union in Oceania by the beginning of the third decade of the XXI century.
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