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Moscow real estate: 30 years of insane profit


Shishkin S.S.
(about the author)

Shishkin Sergey Sergeevich –

Published in:
Russian Journal of Housing Research
– Volume 6, Number 3 (July-September 2019)

JEL classification: R31, R32, R33

Keywords: depreciation of housing, national capital, R/S analysis, real estate market, rental rates


Citation:
Shishkin S.S. (2019). Moscow real estate: 30 years of insane profit. Russian Journal of Housing Research, 6(3), 295-308. doi: 10.18334/zhs.6.3.41200


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Abstract:

The article focuses on the investments in residential real estate in Moscow. It addresses the equilibrium cost, real expected return, and standard deviation. The first indicator is determined by comparing the value of Moscow housing stock and its GRP, PPP, which is a development of the national capital model. The second indicator is the sum of the net rental return and the equilibrium price drift minus depreciation losses. The third indicator is calculated on the bases of on R/S analysis. All calculations are related to almost 30 years of time since 1992. They show that the real expected return was about 3-12 %, while the average geometric realized return, with the possibility of reinvesting rents, could exceed 8 %. Currently the real expected return is at the lower limit and is not more than 5 %, but it is being offset by the relative cheapness of the current price compared to the equilibrium price. The standard deviation is estimated at 27 %








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