Kislyakov A.N.Published in:
Journal of International Economic Affairs
– Volume 9, Number 1 (January-March 2019)

JEL classification: C15, C53, C63, C65

Keywords: market asymmetry, Monte Carlo method, simulation modeling, value added tax


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Abstract:

The work is aimed at solving the actual problem of assessing the behavior of participants in the retail fuel market in the conditions of rising prices caused by an increase in the value added tax rate. The proposed approach is based on the application of the Monte Carlo method to simulate the behavior of sellers of the retail fuel market while reducing the flow of customers one of the competing fuel companies in the market, taking into account the structure of the price of a liter of fuel in the market. On the basis of the constructed model has done the estimation of the optimal cost of a liter of fuel in a competitive environment, depending on the number of competitors, as well as of the flow of buyers. The dependence of the average profit of one transaction and the optimal price of the offer on the price per liter of fuel with a decrease in the volume of fuel acquisition are studied, the results of modeling the behavior of sellers when changing the preferences of buyers are presented.

Highlights:

1. Lack of awareness among market participants creates market asymmetries.
2. Each buyer has its own preferences for the purchase of fuel from a particular supplier.
3. The presence of competitors and the level of indifference of preferences of buyers sharply influences the reduction of the offer price in the retail fuel market.
4. The decrease in the flow of buyers from a single large supplier does not affect the reduction of the optimal price oт fuel.
5. The sale price of fuel is extremely sensitive to its cost.

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