Eremenko M.M.Published in:
Russian Journal of Housing Research
– Volume 5, Number 3 (July-September 2018)

JEL classification: L74, R31, R38

Keywords: better housing, correlation and regression analysis, funding sources, housing construction, housing policy, housing programs, investment, residential homes, technique of selection of factors, the input of housing in operation


Share:

Abstract:

The article is devoted to the problem of regional development – developing a methodological , with the help of which it is possible to predict levels of investment of the population into construction of houses. The methodology was built on the basis of logical-analytical methods and multivariate correlation and regression analysis. Development of the methodology included three main blocks. The first block involves compiling the broadest list of economic factors that determine the value of a resulting symptom. In the second block, a selection of factors from the existing list was carried out and an economic-mathematical model was constructed. The third section assessed the precision of the model. Approbation of methodological tools is done on the example of the Republic of Belarus, for which a model was developed and a forecast was compiled. In the model were selected such factors as the availability of housing as a ratio of nominal gross average monthly wages to the cost of construction of 1 sq.m. of housing and a monetary income per capita. Predictive indicator were calculated for the model in three different scenarios: on the basis of indicators of socio-economic development of the Republic of Belarus, determined according to the governmental policy documents of the Republic of Belarus in the current five-year period, the trends for three periods ahead and also in accordance with the pessimistic prediction for the period. The resulting model allowed to calculate that the increase in monetary income per capita by 1 ruble leads to an increase of investment in public fixed capital for construction of residential houses by 5 million rubles. Prediction of the volume of investment in public fixed capital for the construction of houses can be useful for developers of residential buildings, manufacturers of building materials, Republican state management bodies, other interested organizations and citizens.

---

References:
Browne L. (2001). National and Regional Housing Patterns New England Economic Review. 31.
Dubrova T.A. (2003). Statisticheskie metody prognozirovaniya [Statistical forecasting methods] M.: YuNITI-DANA. (in Russian).
Dubrova T.A., Lozovskaya A.N. (2012). Analiz dinamiki i prognozirovanie razvitiya zhilischnogo stroitelstva v Tsentralnom federalnom okruge [Development analysis and forecast of the housing of the central federal district]. Statistika i Ekonomika. (2). 113-119. (in Russian).
Hayashi F., Ito T., Slemrod J. (1988). Housing finance imperfections, taxation, and private saving: a comparative simulation analysis of the United States and Japan Journal of the Japanese and International Economies. 2 (3). 215-238. doi: 10.1016/0889-1583(88)90011-1.
Ignasheva T.A. (2014). Prognozirovanie obemov zhilischnogo stroitelstva v regionakh [Forecasting of housing construction volumes in the regions]. Scientific and methodical electronic journal Concept. 2 2116-2120. (in Russian).
Ignasheva T.A., Bakumenko L.P., Sarycheva T.V. (2015). Comparative analysis and forecast of the housing dynamics in the Volga district regions Mediterranean Journal of Social Sciences. 6 (3). 317-326.
Kamenetskiy M.I. (2012). Otsenka variantov prognoza razvitiya stroitelnogo kompleksa: 2020, 2030 gody [Assessment of Options for Building Complex Development Forecast in 2020 and 2030]. Scientific works Institute for Economics and Forecasting RAS. (10). 222-242. (in Russian).
Kopeykin A.B., Rogozhina N.N., Tumanov A.A. i dr. (2007). Finansirovanie zhilischnogo stroitelstva [Housing finance] M.: Fond «Institut ekonomiki goroda». (in Russian).
Kremer N.Sh. (2009). Matematika dlya ekonomistov: ot Arifmetiki do Ekonometriki [Mathematics for economists: from Arithmetic to Econometrics] M.: Vysshee obrazovanie. (in Russian).
Kuzmenkov A. A., Emelyanova E. G. (2013). Tendentsii razvitiya zhilischnogo stroitelstva v Respublike Kareliya [Housing trends in republic of karelia]. Fundamental research. (8-1). 154-158. (in Russian).
Kwoun M.J., Lee S.H., Kim J.H., Kim J.J. (2013). Dynamic cycles of unsold new housing stocks, investment in housing, and housing supply-demand Mathematical and Computer Modelling. 57 (9-10). 2094-2105. doi: 10.1016/j.mcm.2011.08.005.
Lapach S.N., Radchenko S.G. (2012). Osnovnye problemy postroeniya regressionnyh modeley [The core problems of regression models construction]. Matematicheskie mashiny i sistemy. 1 (4). 125-133. (in Russian).
Lindh T. Malmberg B. (2008). Demography and housing demand-what can we learn from residential construction data? Journal of Population Economics. 21 (3). 521-539. doi: 10.1007/s00148-006-0064-0.
Oleynik E.B., Zakharova A.P. (2012). Analiz i prognozirovanie obema investitsiy v osnovnoy kapital [Analysis and prediction of amount of investments into fixed capital]. Economy of the region. (1). 137-149. (in Russian).
Osili U. (2005). Migrants and Housing Investments: Theory and Evidence from Nigeria Economic Development and Cultural Change. 52 (4). 821-849.
Quan Z.X. (2006). Institutional transformation and marketisation: The changing patterns of housing investment in urban China Habitat International. 30 (2). 327-341. doi: 10.1016/j.habitatint.2004.02.008.
Sevek V.K., Mongush O.N., Chuldum A.E., Salchak A.A. (2015). Prognozirovanie obemov zhilischnogo stroitelstva g. Kyzyl na osnove korrelyatsionno-regressionnogo analiza [Forecasting of housing construction in kyzyl-based regression analysis]. Bulletin of Transbaikal State University. (10(125)). 119-129. (in Russian).
Sigel Endryu F. (2008). Prakticheskaya biznes-statistika [Practical business statistics] M.: Izdatelskiy dom "Vilyams". (in Russian).
Sternik G. M., Sternik S.G. (2018). Metodika prognozirovaniya obemov vvoda na lokalnom rynke stroitelstva i prodazhi zhilya [Methods of forecasting the volume of input in the local market of construction and housing sale]. Russian Journal of Housing Research. 5 (2). (in Russian).
Trofimov I.B., Eremenko M.M. (2010). Raschet neobkhodimyh obemov proizvodstva stroitelno-montazhnyh rabot po vozvedeniyu zhilyh zdaniy i trebuemyh investitsiy v zhilischnoe stroitelstvo v Respublike Belarus na blizhayshie gody [Calculation of the required volume of construction and installation works for the construction of residential buildings and the required investment in housing in the Republic of Belarus in the coming years] Resources of large cities & resources of socio-economic development of the region and the country. 193-198. (in Russian).
Valetko V.V. (2011). Restrukturizatsiya ekonomiki i ekonomicheskiy rost: ekonometricheskiy analiz vliyaniya stroitelstva zhilya v 2006–2010 gg [Economic restructuring and growth: econometric analysis of the impact of housing construction in 2006-2010]. Trudy BGTU. (7). 21-24. (in Russian).
Стерник Г.М. Методика среднесрочного прогнозирования развития рынка жилья города (региона)Имущественные отношения в РФ. Retrieved October 25, 2017, from http://cyberleninka.ru/article/n/metodika-srednesrochnogo-prognozirovaniya-razvitiya-rynka-zhilya-goroda-regiona