Yuan exchange rate estimation and forecasting according to balance of payment

Балалаева И.Е.1
1 Санкт-Петербургский Государственный Университет

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Volume 8, Number 3 (July-September 2018)

Please, cite as:
Balalaeva I.E. Otsenka i prognozirovanie kursa yuanya soglasno modeli platezhnogo balansa // Ekonomicheskie otnosheniya. – 2018. – Tom 8. – № 3. – S. 453-460. – doi: 10.18334/eo.8.3.39195.

Indexed in Russian Science Citation Index: https://elibrary.ru/item.asp?id=36288189

Abstract:
The article is devoted to research of possible short-term yuan exchange rate fluctuation. The article identifies the reasons of correlation between exchange rate valuation and balance of payment components. Author has developed balance of payment model, which allows to estimate dynamic of yuan/dollar currency pair on the assumption that any exogenous economic or political shocks absent. Regression and correlation analysis was carried out in the framework of this model to predict the balance of payments items, regression equations were composed, the probable exchange rate of currencies was derived. As a result of the exchange rate deviation, some trends of changing the role of the Chinese national currency in the world monetary system have been revealed. These changes can have an impact on the development of the issuing country economy, and on the development of the world economy as well.

Keywords: regression analysis, balance of payment, People’s Republic of China, Chinese yuan, international monetary system

JEL-classification: F31, F32, F33

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